He remains the most popular governor in the U.S., according
to the latest quarterly survey by Morning Consult.
By wide margins, he outpolls each of the three candidates
now in the race for the Democrat nomination for governor: Jay Gonzalez, Robert
Massie and Setti Warren.
And the Massachusetts economy continues to hum. Just this week, for example, we learned that the
unemployment rate here has dropped to 3.6 percent.
“Year-to-date, the jobs and labor force estimates indicate a
strong and stable economy in the Commonwealth,” said Rosalin Acosta, the
state’s Secretary of Labor and Workforce Development.
Yup, Baker’s sitting pretty and it’s hard to see how things
could turn ugly for him.
Unless you happen to read the latest [December 6] forecast
from the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation.
The title says it all: “MTF Forecast: Foundation Advises Beacon Hill –
‘Batten Down the Hatches’.”
The forecast is eight-and-half pages and has some helpful,
easy-to-understand charts. If you want
to check it out, click on the link at the bottom of this post.
Here’s my stab at a highly condensed overview:
The economy remains robust
and the state budget seems safely in balance. However, federal tax reform
legislation will have a huge and uncertain impact on a blue state like
Massachusetts; the state could lose $650 million in revenue in FY 19 (July 1,
2018-June 30, 2019) if voters approve a statewide ballot question next year reducing
the sales tax from 6.25% to 5%; and if voters approve another ballot question,
on paid family and medical leaves of absence, there would be an additional
$150-million revenue loss because of reduced taxes, state program
administration costs, and participation costs to the state for its employees.
The “only sound course,” MTF President Eileen McAnneny
warned, “is a return to fiscal discipline that limits state spending growth,
delivers needed reforms and savings in MassHealth, and deposits all excess
capital gains and corporate tax settlements into the rainy day fund.”The forecast did not overlook the largest elephant in the room: a national economic expansion that is now on borrowed time. “...there has not been a significant external shock or economic downturn since the last recession,” it noted.
Think about that. The economy began recovering from The
Great Recession in 2009 and has been growing without interruption ever
since: eight years without a
recession. A recession is inevitable. We just don’t know when.
If the economy were to stall in the second quarter of
calendar 2018, if the aforementioned fiscal threats were to materialize
in full, and if the Baker administration were compelled in response to propose
cuts in MassHealth, which ensures one out of four citizens and accounts for 41%
to 42% of the entire state budget, the governor’s popularity could plummet. Just as suddenly, the popularity of Setti
Warren, a Navy intelligence specialist during the Iraq war, a proven executive
as Mayor of Newton [2010-16], and an unabashed liberal, could rise. (Polls indicate Warren is way ahead of both
Massie and Gonzalez.)
This talk about an unbeatable Charlie Baker is really just
talk. I don’t think our governor is
buying it, either.
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