A QUESTION THAT SCREAMS, ‘FINESSE ME’ - A late-January poll
by WBUR and MassINC revealed that Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly favor the
so-called “millionaire’s surtax,” which will be a referendum question on the
November, 2018, statewide ballot. Forty-eight
percent of respondents indicated they “strongly support” the surtax; 29%
said they support it “somewhat.” If
passed, the referendum would amend the state constitution in order to allow a
4% surtax on annual household incomes of $1 million or more. The new tax would be in addition to the
existing 5.1% flat income tax paid by all residents. When he read those poll results, Charlie Baker reached, I imagine, for an aspirin bottle.
As a fiscal conservative, the flaws in the surtax are obvious to
him. As a practical politician, the
risks of voicing opposition to it and/or openly campaigning against it next year are equally
clear. The beating he took this past
November on highly contentious ballot questions is still fresh: voters rejected Baker’s energetic and
sustained arguments on legalizing marijuana for fun (against) and increasing
the number of charter schools (for). Referenda are rough for this Republican. Running
for re-election next year, and facing a Democrat who is certain to be hitting
him hard for not hitting Trump hard, Baker will most likely punt on the
surtax. “I have some concerns about the
possible unforeseen consequences of a surtax,” he will have to say, “but I will
certainly abide by the will of the voters.”
TREADING CAREFULLY ROUND THE ‘PEOPLE’S LAWYER’ - Baker has
to be relieved that Maura Healey, the Commonwealth’s popular, omnipresent Democrat attorney general, appears to have firmly ruled out running for governor next year. About two weeks ago, responding to questions
on WGBH Boston Public Radio, Healey said, “You know, as lawyers, sometimes you
get in the courtroom and the other side objects and they say, ‘Asked and
answered.’ That’s a little how I feel on
this one (question of challenging Baker in 2018). I’m running for re-election. I think that my job as attorney general, it’s
never been as important as it is now to do my job and do my job well. Certainly we have our hands full, so that’s
what I’m focused on.” Others smiling
broadly now that Healey’s staying put are Setti Warren, former mayor of Newton,
and Jay Gonzalez, former secretary of administration and finance in the Deval
Patrick administration, both of whom are already running for the Democratic gubernatorial
nomination. After one of Healey’s
earlier disavowals of a run for governor, Warren issued a press release flowing
with Maura love. “I am glad that she
will be a leader of the Democratic ticket in 2018 as she asks voters for
another term as the People’s Lawyer,” Warren said. You bet he is.
A LISTENING TOUR ON THE LEVEL FOR ONCE - There’s nothing I
usually laugh at more than the notion of a would-be candidate going on a
listening tour. My problem with this
staple of politics is that I’ve never seen anyone come back from such a jaunt
and tell us he wasn’t going to run because he’d earnestly sought to
discern the mood of the electorate and the electorate had told him, “We think
you’d be a lousy candidate. Don’t run.
Please.” I’m making an exception
in the case of the estimable Dan Wolf of Harwich, former Democrat state senator from Cape
Cod, as Dan is a sincere servant of the public, one who truly listens, and
enjoys listening, to people. Wolf also
has the honesty to tell the world at the conclusion of his particular tour,
which commenced on Feb. 16: “I’d like to be the governor of Massachusetts. I believe I’d be a very good governor. However, I did not sense that my candidacy
would be successful. Therefore, I shall
not make the extraordinary effort required of a committed candidate for
governor.” Wolf did not build Cape Air,
a regional airline, into a behemoth from scratch by missing
the facts. I hasten to add that Wolf’s
listening/speaking tour could legitimately uncover much evidence that he’d be a
strong candidate. Charlie Baker, Setti
Warren and Jay Gonzalez have likely already come to that conclusion.
A STRATEGIC RETREAT, PERHAPS – Evan Falchuk’s dream of building his baby,
the United Independent Party (UIP), into a legitimate third party expired
quietly on Feb. 13, a purported victim of the widespread anxiety induced by the
Trump presidency. In an announcement
that day, Falchuk said he was changing his party registration to Democrat
because the Democratic Party is “the only organization strong enough for the
fight against the excesses of the Trump administration.” Normally, guys who start their own political
parties are uncontrollable egomaniacs and/or conspiracy theorists. Falchuk was the exception: a young, charming family man and lawyer cum
health care executive from Auburndale -- a graduate of Noble and Greenough,
Lehigh, and the University of Pennsylvania Law School. Not at all a nut. I remember watching him in a televised debate
in 2014 when he was running for governor.
He was patently intelligent, had charisma, and the camera loved
him. Thoroughly at ease, he actually
seemed to be having fun, which made it fun to watch him. Do not be surprised if Falchuk seeks some
office as a Democrat next year, say lieutenant governor or secretary of
state.
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