“Demographics and
regional electoral factors do matter in the general election. But deep and
emotional judgments about candidates ultimately drive Americans’ choice of a
president,” Sasso wrote in a Boston Globe op-ed piece, (“The values battle in
the general election,” 5-19-16).
“The most salient variables,” he continued, “are voter
perceptions of three characteristics: a candidate’s personal political
strength, voters’ trust in the depth and sincerity of the candidate’s
convictions, and, most importantly, whether the voters think that the candidate
‘cares’ about people like them.”
In Sasso’s opinion, “The experience of recent presidential
elections suggests that convincing swing voters that you possess these
qualities can make all the difference in voters’ final choices of a president.” He concluded with: “This values battle
is one that Clinton will welcome, wage ferociously – and likely win.” (The Globe editors should have underlined
likely.)
A political mastermind, Sasso helped to put two Democrats
from Massachusetts, Michael Dukakis (1988) and John Kerry (2004), within reach
of the presidency. We can always profit
from heeding him but perhaps no more so than now, as we absorb the effects
of Trump’s coronation this week in Cleveland by the GOP and anticipate the
responsorial moves Hillary Clinton will make next week at the Democrat
convention in Philadelphia.
The more I think about what Sasso wrote -- and
I have re-read “The values battle” several times over again today -- the more I
agree with him: Hillary will win in November.
I figure that Trump will win the contest in voters'
minds over the first characteristic, personal political strength, while Hillary
will win it on the third characteristic, caring about people like them.
The shooting match could then come down to whom
the voters trust to have the deepest, most sincere convictions. The electorate will have a hard time
making that call. Ultimately, more will decide that Hillary holds her beliefs
more genuinely than Trump.
A majority will make that judgment, I think,
based on Hillary’s lifelong political activism and involvement, and compared to
Trump’s late-in-life, impulse-is-king plunge into politics at the highest
level.
Disclosure: I’ve known John Sasso casually for 17 or 18
years. I like and admire him because
he’s very smart, he's not the least bit self-important, and he seems
to have a very good time doing what he does.
Think I’ve gone overboard calling him a mastermind? Consider that Sasso has made a good living as a solo practitioner in the fields of government affairs and communications for close to 30 years and that his company, Advanced Strategies, does not even have a web site.
And if this John Sasso has a LinkedIn profile, I’ll be damned if I can find it.
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